Topic: Newt wins So. Carolina primary

[trapeze]

Summary of concession speeches by Romney, Santorum and Paul can be found here.

[IronDioPriest]

I had a thought yesterday as to why I think people are starting to see Gingrich as viable, and it dovetails with Trap's post above re; the media.

Whoever the GOP nominee is will most assuredly be running against Barack Obama, the Democrat party, pop culture, and perhaps most importantly, the mainstream media. Newt Gingrich has tapped into that fact in a big way. He's not just running against Romney, Santorum, or Obama. He's running against the media, just as sure as the media is running against him.

A GOP primary candidate who recognizes this reality and demonstrates a willingness and ability to deal with it effectively is going to be attractive to voters who loathe the media bias and double standards. I think light-bulbs are going off in the minds of the conservative electorate that of all the candidates, Gingrich understands that because the media will be his opponent, he must run against the media, and they are watching him do it with flare, liking what they see, and his support is reflecting that.

Gingrich is showing people that he is prepared to take on Obama AND the media in order to overcome both.

[Pandora]

THAT'S why I call it the Media Party!

[trapeze]

Another point to consider:

This primary was (and this primary campaign is) Romney's to lose. Romney, as the presumptive front runner, has been and is playing to not lose. As football enthusiasts know, the "prevent" defense is a very weak strategy and more often than not results in a loss for the team that utilizes it. He may still eke out a win in Florida. By all rights he should win Florida. Florida is Romney's to lose.

This "playing to not lose" strategy of Romney's is beginning to become glaringly obvious to the voters and I don't think that it is inspiring much in the way of confidence. The way that Romney has conducted himself in the last two debates has underscored his attitude and this strategy. He hasn't strongly defended his record as a free market capitalist and seems to be embarrassed by his past success.

By comparison, Gingrich seems to blithely ignore his past failings and instead goes on the attack at every opportunity. Sometimes those attacks have been wrong as in his left wing inspired approach to Romney's work at Bain. But for the most part he has kicked ass appropriately and relentlessly. Voters like that.

[charlesoakwood]

So...just why did Gingrich finish so strongly in SC and why might he also have a similar (if perhaps not so overwhelming) finish in Florida?

I think that most of Gingrich's success with the voters has mostly to do with his willingness (some might say "eagerness") to take on the media.

First of all I think that the voters are consciously and subconsciously substituting the media as a sort of Obongo-by-proxy. Sure, there will be plenty of Obongo bashing opportunities in the general election campaign but this is, for all intents and purposes, the warm up for the main event. I believe that the voters are mentally substituting the media for Obongo and (hopefully) rightfully think that Gingrich will show as much eagerness to attack the president when the opportunity is right. Romney, by comparison, is seen as meek and timid for not only ignoring the obnoxiousness of the press but for refusing to criticize Obongo. Romney has repeatedly refused to call Obongo a socialist and said that he believes that the president is just wrong...rather than designate his motives as nefarious.

Secondly...and no less importantly...I believe that most of the voters detest the press as much or more than they despise politicians and lawyers (but I repeat myself). I believe that most of the voters have been waiting for, longing for someone to come along who would give the press the thrashing that they so richly deserve. To say the things that almost all of us have harbored deep within our hearts about the condescending liberal media. Watching Gingrich mop the floor with the various empty headed morons who anchor for the news outlets is wish fulfillment on a grand scale. It's virtually impossible to not cheer him on.

This technique might be copied by Romney and Santorum but (and especially in the case of Romney) I doubt it. Romney doesn't have it in him and I don't think that Santorum is capable of it either. Neither one of them have Gingrich's history with the media. Gingrich was skewered mercilessly during his time as Speaker of the House and he has had many years to think on his revenge. And now he is able to smack one after another out of the park with the added benefit of giving the very visual appearance of relishing the opportunity.

And the funny thing is that (if the stories may be believed) Gingrich is actually quite chummy with the press off the record. They treat him warmly and respectfully off camera but, unlike his predecessors, he knows that it is their job to destroy him when the lights go up. Unlike his predecessors he isn't fooled into believing that the press will treat him nicely if only he sucks up to them enough. Unlike, say McCain, Gingrich is perfectly willing to use the press to his own advantage...turning the tables on them gleefully. The voters are seeing this and (for now anyway) are rewarding it.

Gingrich    229639
                                    >69650
Romney    152777
                                     >54885
Santorum  97892
                                    > 22618
Paul             75274

Paul has been maneuvering/preparing for a brokered convention.  If we weren't such a minority it may work but I share your fear.

To say the things that almost all of us have harbored deep within our hearts about the condescending liberal media. Watching Gingrich mop the floor with the various empty headed morons who anchor for the news outlets is wish fulfillment on a grand scale. It's virtually impossible to not cheer him on.

True and I think this is the same deep desire against the establishment Republicans who have gone so far as rigging the Iowa results.  We gave them a victory in 2010 and they
gave us resentment.  They, represented by Romney, started this fight and Newt will take it and feed it to them.  If the country's going to go to hell we may as well go there fighting.

 

[IronDioPriest]

...This "playing to not lose" strategy of Romney's is beginning to become glaringly obvious to the voters and I don't think that it is inspiring much in the way of confidence...

Perhaps it was a wise strategy when there were 8 candidates and all of them in the business of knocking each other out. But now Romney must fight just like everyone else. He's not a fighter. He's a deal maker.

[IronDioPriest]

...I think this is the same deep desire against the establishment Republicans who have gone so far as rigging the Iowa results.  We gave them a victory in 2010 and they gave us resentment.  They, represented by Romney, started this fight and Newt will take it and feed it to them.  If the country's going to go to hell we may as well go there fighting.

It IS gratifying to see Gingrich hand people's asses to them. But to forget for one moment that Gingrich oozes Republican establishment from every pore will only disappoint in the end.

[AmericanPatriot]

Don't get me wrong.
I love Newt's performances.

But let's not forget that he is a Wilsonian progressive through and through

If Jeb was the pick of a brokered convention, it's all over anyway

[charlesoakwood]

98.8% reporting (2111/2136)   
Gingrich   40.4%   239,682
Romney   27.8%   165,354
Santorum   17.0%   100,968
Paul      13.0   77,293
       

Establishment they all are.

[trapeze]

...I think this is the same deep desire against the establishment Republicans who have gone so far as rigging the Iowa results.  We gave them a victory in 2010 and they gave us resentment.  They, represented by Romney, started this fight and Newt will take it and feed it to them.  If the country's going to go to hell we may as well go there fighting.

It IS gratifying to see Gingrich hand people's asses to them. But to forget for one moment that Gingrich oozes Republican establishment from every pore will only disappoint in the end.

Which is why I'm not a Gingrich supporter.

I will reluctantly support and vote for him should he be the nominee but I have no illusions about him.

Gingrich is morally ambiguous at best. Gingrich is a big government type. Gingrich is an academic...a right wing academic to be sure but an academic all the same and that comes with its own particularly obnoxious form of self important condescension toward the "masses." I suppose we should be grateful that his pedigree isn't Ivy League at least. I don't think I could bear another Skull and Bones type. He probably has more than a normal share of narcism, too. That kind of comes with the whole "running for president" thing...the extreme end of the type A personality spectrum.

Nevertheless, I will vote for him should he make it. Or Romney. Or Santorum. And yes, even that idiot Paul.

Because any of them would be better than the destructive force currently occupying the Oval Office. We cannot as a nation survive another four years and a probably Supreme Court pick or two of this.

[John Florida]

98.8% reporting (2111/2136)   
Gingrich   40.4%   239,682
Romney   27.8%   165,354
Santorum   17.0%   100,968
Paul      13.0   77,293
       

Establishment they all are.

  That may well be but at least this time the media and the DC powerbrokers aren't picking our candidate so fat.They have been backing Romney from jump street this is just making their heads explode.They have been sell Mitt as the for gone conclusion for months with his 25% and holding now they have to work to try and change the damage just done by the people of S.C.

[trapeze]

Don't get me wrong.
I love Newt's performances.

But let's not forget that he is a Wilsonian progressive through and through

If Jeb was the pick of a brokered convention, it's all over anyway

I merely offer Jeb Bush as a possibility...the first one who came to mind. But it could just as easily be Mitch Daniels. Or any other middle of the road establishment RINO you care to think of.

A brokered convention is every bit as much a nightmare for the Republican Party as a Constitutional Convention would be for the country...a Pandora's Box. I don't want to go there. Not at all.

[charlesoakwood]

Well Jeb Bush is enough to scare the hell out of everybody here.

[trapeze]

Florida is a reasonably strong state for Mitt Romney. But it's not clear how large his lead is there, even before accounting for anything that might happen tonight.

FiveThirtyEight's current forecast of Florida shows Mr. Romney with 46 percent of the vote there to 25 percent for Newt Gingrich -- a 21-point lead.

Essentially all of the polling data used for the forecast, however, predates the Monday night debate in Myrtle Beach; since then, there has been a dramatic reversal of fortunes in the Republican race. Mr. Romney lost 15 points off his national polling lead in the Gallup national tracking poll over this period. There has been an even larger swing -- a net of about 21 points between Mr. Romney and Mr. Gingrich -- in South Carolina.

If the Florida polls have swung as much as the national polls during the past several days, Mr. Romney would have only about a five-point lead there now. And if the Florida polls have swung as much as the South Carolina polls have during the last week, Mr. Gingrich and Mr. Romney would now be essentially tied.

- Nate Silver

LINK

[trapeze]

I mentioned earlier tonight that polls showing Mitt Romney with a large lead in Florida need to be interpreted carefully, since they were conducted before Mr. Gingrich's surge in national and South Carolina polls over the past week. During this time, Mr. Gingrich has gained somewhere between 15 and 25 points on Mr. Romney by different measures, roughly matching Mr. Romney's lead in the Florida polls.

Now, Mr. Gingrich has additional momentum after his clear win in South Carolina tonight.

The betting market Intrade, making inferences in the absence of polling, now gives Mr. Romney about a 60 percent chance of winning Florida and Mr. Gingrich a 40 percent chance.

That looks roughly correct to me. My guess is that if Mr. Romney and Mr. Gingrich are roughly tied in the Florida polls once we get fresh data, Mr. Romney would be the slight favorite to win the state because of his advantages in advertising dollars and early voting. And the bounce from winning a primary can sometimes fade over a matter of days.

However, given his big win tonight, it is also possible that Mr. Gingrich will lead Mr. Romney once new polls are released there. If he starts out with a cushion of three to five points over Mr. Romney, for instance, his position there will look more robust.

- Nate Silver

Same link as above.

[trapeze]

And yeah, although I don't much care for Gingrich I care less for Romney if for no other reason* that he was the preferred pick of the Establishment. Watching Romney cheerleader John Sunnunu and his ilk go down in flames is almost worth the price of admission.

Almost.


*but there are so many reasons.

One more thing...

Maybe my notions on the reason(s) for Gingrich's success are complete nonsense. Maybe the sole reason for Newt's victory is this.

[trapeze]

Finally, and this may turn out to be very telling in Florida, the details on the exit polling...

Mitt Romney scored a majority with the following voters:

- those who consider their political philosophy to be "moderate to liberal"

- those who self identify themselves as NOT being Christians.

- those who oppose the Tea Party.

- those who favor abortion to be legal in most cases.

- those who believe that it is of little to no importance that a candidate share their own religious beliefs.

Additionally, Romney scored a majority in the category of "ran the most unfair campaign."

Draw your own conclusions.

[Alphabet Soup]

all those are interesting, as is the 38% who said that they would not support Romney should he prevail and move to the general. Of course it would be more insightful had they measured the same against Newt...

[charlesoakwood]

If Romney is our candidate Obama will be re-elected.

No person at IAL has spoke more harshly against the gNewt than I.
We are now down to the cutting.  It is time to go for the win to rid
ourselves of the great menace that pleagues the White House.
Check Santorum's record he is a company man who is stridently
anti-abortion.  The gNewt is also anti-abortion, he is also tougher
and smarter and as IDP says he is on a *mission, he has a vendetta.  
As it is those on his personal list are on our list also.  

Santorum has only the most remote of chances to win the primary,
Newt is on a roll. The evangelicals are not against him and the big
mo' is on his side.  Crunch the numbers.  The best play is for Rick
to endorse Newt allowing him to take Florida.  That is our best hope.

*I remember in the ninety's, on the news, hearing about special orders being brought to the floor evey day. It was driving Democrats crazy, even Byrd's great knowledge of the Constitution and the Rules of Order were befuddled.  Only within the last few weeks did I discover that the man writing and delivering those orders
every day was Newt Gingrich.  He is indefatigable.

The Inner Quest of Newt Gingrich

by Gail Sheehy
Vanity Fair September 1995

...
 [blockquote]Frank Gregorsky, then a Gingrich staff writer, had worked for nine months on a paper which cited particularly controversial Democratic statements on foreign policy in Vietnam, Cuba, and Nicaragua. According to Gregorsky, Newt said, "We're going to read this on the record. We're going to pick a fight." Democrats were apparently informed that Gingrich was to deliver a Special Order that afternoon. "They just thought it was another Newt thing," says Gregorsky. At the close of the legislative day, Newt read the incendiary paper --before an empty chamber and for the benefit of the C-SPAN audience. He accused the Democrats of believing that "America does nothing right." It was pure theater.

Yet the attack so violated the traditional comity of the House that then Speaker Tip O'Neill "lost his cool" (in Gregorsky's words) and a few days later --in a full session of Congress --accused Gingrich of "the lowest thing I've ever seen in my 32 years in Congress." Representative Trent Lott demanded that O'Neill's words be stricken from the record, and the presiding congressional officer ruled in his favor. Gingrich's tour de force made all the network news shows that night --and a star was born. "I am now a famous person," Newt crowed to the press.

But in his mania for immediate headlines, Newt had drawn blood, and his enemies still swear vengeance.
...
Newt grabbed a napkin and drew a diagram illustrating how he intended to define the opposition "out of existence." On other occasions Newt said that Democratic leaders were "corrupt," that they associated with "thugs," and that they followed Neville Chamberlain's philosophy of "withdrawal from the planet." Their policies, he warned, would bring to American shores "the joys of Soviet-style brutality and the murder of women and children."

...[/blockquote]  

As Rush said, Newt should tie that wild idea 1/2 of his brain behind his back.   I would rather take a chance with Newt than have Romney or Obama as my president.

 

[Sectionhand]

This means that if there is a brokered convention they will be free to support Paul after the first vote. That is, regardless of who you support, reason enough to settle this damn thing early and assure that Romney, Gingrich or Santorum has enough delegates to win the nomination on the first ballot

.

Sorry,Trap, but completely disagree.
Even if it went brokered, Paul would still never have enough for the nomination.

I want every last one of them bloody, battered and shown to be unacceptable with the hope that a real conservative can come out of this
If it splits the party, it's needed done for a while now

It's way too early to be talking about a brokered convention which , quite frankly , the MSM and Democrats are hoping for .