I like this, Rabobank's Michael Every offers a counter-point to former Fed repo wizard Zoltan Pozsar's BW3 end of the dollar scenario...and Every is a self-described geopolitical status quo skeptic, so this is not coming from a rules based order fan, just someone disagreeing with Pozsar's BW3 end of the dollar scenario, and it makes the most sense to me of all I read so far...
This article is very busy and technical -
https://www.zerohedge.com/markets/nice-narrative-no-why-one-strategist-thinks-zoltan-pozsars-bretton-woods-3-never-goingEssentially, Every see's a return to mercantilism...and asserts a new reserve currency cannot be maintained without a nation (among other things) sacrificing a trade imbalance situation, something I think potential suitors would find difficult as it would be a 180 degree flip from historical (ahem, China!) and that a bifurcated global system, or further sub-division and a fractured and parallel value chains...and that this mercantile world would be a highly realpolitik global environment...that basically Pozsar's BW3 will look valid in the short-term but that it will lead to de-couplings that will destroy it and see this new mercantilism take hold. The dollar will still be a major player, lesser but not dead and not replaced.
I tend to think nature and systems seek out equilibrium, and the Every scenario seems to be in harmony with that. It may not always look that way with manipulative humans mucking things up...but over a longer time frame it should.
