Topic: Demographic Winter

[pisskop]

Some of this I believe and could probably confirm with a five minute search, other stuff it taught me and I need to look up.  Whatever the case I found the video worth my time.

Demographic Winter

It explains the declining birth rate of Europe and other parts of the world, and the possible reasons behind it, the consequences.

This can quite easily fold nicely into the concept of a demographic bomb, which I am hearing more of.

[Septugenarian]

Indeed.  We are similarly afflicted.  Birth rate too low to maintain the culture (assuming its worth maintaining/saving).  Each generation since the greatest is smaller than its predecessor, etc.  Economically it bodes poorly for us, well, for the kids and grandkids anyway.

[whimsicalmamapig]

I believe that this is a natural phenomenon. many studies suggest that as a species we are overpopulating the planet, draining too much natural resources such as arable land and fresh water.

Perhaps this is a defense mechanism, an instinctive response to a growing awareness of the crowding all around us.  perhaps it explains the rise in homosexuality as a response to a need to slow down the reproductive rate.

If you have ever read mesolithic and paleolithic history you would know how empty this planet originally was.  we have filled it up, not only with cultures that we disdain, but also with great cultures such as ours. the u.s. will endure a growing water shortage, especially as what was before air conditioning, unusable land, is filling up in our south west.

we must realize that the perfect storm of 1945-1965 when the rest of the world was recovering from near annihilation. we were the only functioning economy and we were still innocent and hadn't really absorbed the toxic nihilism from a devastated Europe. this cannot be recreated at this point in history. we need to move on, hopefully upward, but not essentially outward.

the planet is finite. there are no more continents to find and fill.

this shouldn't be a dirge, it should be a challenge to our human spirit to find a way to flourish without endangering the productivity of the planet.
the time to be fruitful and multiply has come and gone

[IronDioPriest]

If you haven't yet read Mark Steyn's "America Alone", you should read it.

[whimsicalmamapig]

I have wanted to read several of his books but I am just not emotionally ready for them.  I find reading ancient history is much more satisfying as I can observe bygone events and compare them to what is happening today and find satisfaction in guessing what might happen now based on proven human responses to situations.

I am not ready to accept the dire straights into which we seem to have put ourselves. 

[Pandora]

I believe that this is a natural phenomenon. many studies suggest that as a species we are overpopulating the planet, draining too much natural resources such as arable land and fresh water.

Perhaps this is a defense mechanism, an instinctive response to a growing awareness of the crowding all around us.  perhaps it explains the rise in homosexuality as a response to a need to slow down the reproductive rate.

If you have ever read mesolithic and paleolithic history you would know how empty this planet originally was.  we have filled it up, not only with cultures that we disdain, but also with great cultures such as ours. the u.s. will endure a growing water shortage, especially as what was before air conditioning, unusable land, is filling up in our south west.

we must realize that the perfect storm of 1945-1965 when the rest of the world was recovering from near annihilation. we were the only functioning economy and we were still innocent and hadn't really absorbed the toxic nihilism from a devastated Europe. this cannot be recreated at this point in history. we need to move on, hopefully upward, but not essentially outward.

the planet is finite. there are no more continents to find and fill.

this shouldn't be a dirge, it should be a challenge to our human spirit to find a way to flourish without endangering the productivity of the planet.
the time to be fruitful and multiply has come and gone

Baloney.

[LadyVirginia]

Baloney.

I AGREE!!!

[IronDioPriest]

...the time to be fruitful and multiply has come and gone

The problem with that is that civilized Western cultures are the only ones that will self-regulate. We've "purchased" the future security of our progeny with civilization and everything that comes with it.

Third world cultures - particularly concerning among them Islamic cultures - do not self regulate. While Western cultures avoid having children or abort them for reasons ranging from selfish to "saving the planet", Islamic and other Third-world cultures are repopulating at comparative ratios of something like 5/1.

Read America Alone. You'll see the folly in your theory. It's math.

[LadyVirginia]

Just reserved America Alone at the library.

I watched the whole video though it wasn't anything new to me.  I've been reading about this topic for over 20 years.

[BigAlSouth]

The problem is: The Western Culture as practiced by mid-twentieth Century America no longer holds a place of value in the professional educational class.

And I hate those bastards for what they have done to destroy the American spirit through diversity and multiculturalism.

[oldcoastie6468]

Well, we had two kids, and they have given us 6 grandchildren, and 1 great-granddaughter. So the alarmists obviously don't include people like me.

[IronDioPriest]

Well, we had two kids, and they have given us 6 grandchildren, and 1 great-granddaughter. So the alarmists obviously don't include people like me.

The alarming thing is that they do.

The basic premise of Steyn's book is that simple math requires an average of more than two births per adult couple in order to repopulate the species (or race) with zero growth. Further, no specific population have EVER historically fallen slightly below that and bounced back to survive. Essentially, a society or race that falls below 2 births/couple is a dead society/race.

Every European nation's traditional population is well below 2, while their Muslim immigrants are upwards of 5-6. We're witnessing in Scandinavia now, a hint at the fate of Europe as a whole.

America hovers just above 2 - and the only reason we do is because of Blacks, Hispanics, rural families, and Christian families - particularly Catholics.

Still, we hover just above 2, which means our White population is not having children at rates any more prolific than Europe.

The Caucasian race is killing itself with the notion that children are not "required", or worse yet, that they are "bad for the planet".

[pisskop]

Well, we had two kids, and they have given us 6 grandchildren, and 1 great-granddaughter. So the alarmists obviously don't include people like me.

Aye, they'd have to.  You'd bring the birth rate right up.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Demographics_of_the_United_States

The US total fertility rate for 2011 is 1.895: Decrease [40]
1.774 for non-Hispanic Whites Decrease
1.920 for non-Hispanic Blacks Decrease
1.374 for Native Americans (including Hispanics) Decrease
1.707 for Asian Americans (including Hispanics) Increase
2.24 for Hispanics(of all racial groups) Decrease

This is the birth rate of America.  Under 2, which is the requirement of an internally sustained population. 

And population estimates

2010 310,232,863
2020 341,386,665 
2030 373,503,674 
2040 405,655,295 
2050 439,010,253

Its worth noting we had 308 million by 2010, a small amount less than the projection, which isn't slowing.  There's a steady rate of increase here, even as birth rate plummet.

The reason we are predicted to grow is in part die to longer lives and the continued balloon of Baby boomers, but also due to immigration and immigrants having higher fertility.
http://www.cis.org/ImmigrantBirthRates-FertilityUS

http://inamerica.blogs.cnn.com/2012/11/29/immigrants-lead-plunge-in-u-s-birth-rate/

The Pew Research Center's projections indicate that immigrants will continue to play a large role in U.S. population growth: Immigrants arriving since 2005 and their descendants will account for 82% of U.S. population growth by 2050.

Over in Europe, the problem is worse, France, with its natural birth rate of 2.01 is the highest in Europe.  Almost all population growth in Europe is due to immigrants and immigrant births.

[oldcoastie6468]

My Swedish ancestors are rolling over in their graves.

[warpmine]

My Swedish ancestors are rolling over in their graves.

Quickly, strap a dynamo to them for power generation. Europe can then have plenty of green power.

[pisskop]

My Swedish ancestors are rolling over in their graves.

Quickly, strap a dynamo to them for power generation. Europe can then have plenty of green power.

You're a terrible person 

[LadyVirginia]

Well, both sides of my family did their part down to my parents.  Mom had more than 2.1.  I did my part.  Mom should be a grandmother of at least 8 --she has 7 and that's due to me and my brother.  The other two never married.  And really to make the 2.1 work some need to have several because there will be some who can't have children.

I remember when I was a kid it seemed all the grandmas had lots of grandkids.  Now people I know with grandkids often have fewer grandkids than kids--one or two. I know grandparents that have one grandchild.  One. Which is good I guess because their active lifestyle isn't interrupted.

My daughters would like to have  families but they're having a hard time finding suitable material.

[Glock32]

I'm statistically part of the problem. Just turned 36, unmarried, no kids. Of course, my bright, optimistic, and sunny disposition might have something to do with that.

 

[oldcoastie6468]

My Swedish ancestors are rolling over in their graves.

Quickly, strap a dynamo to them for power generation. Europe can then have plenty of green power.

You are baaaad! Of course, how would you know they're rolling in all directions?

[Dan]

We're doing our part with 4 (2each m&f). I read Steyns book while we were well on our way, after we decided to have a brood, so it didnt influence our decision, but I can't tell you the grave concern I have over them winding up a despised minority in their own country.
 I've talked a little bit about it to my boys,  they're oldest, and as they all get older, I plan on presenting the dots to them and letting them draw the picture as it so clearly presents itself, really.
I'm pretty attuned to making sure my wife knows that "we're raising MEN here honey!" No pink, no piercings, no skinny jeans or any other attempts to emasculate the males of our race. She is pretty much on board and we hav had no serious disagreements on it, but I haven't given her the full info on our kids likely future. She has a tough time listening to my gloom and doom re: the economy, never mind the demographic angle.