Topic: Iran

[patentlymn]

He reports Iran is collapsing. Lack of energy. Gas and gasoline shortages.

https://youtu.be/1UALW_j1qVg
 BREAKING: Israel Prepare Attack As IRGC Lose Control Of Iran

[Libertas]

Well, won't Russia, China, North Korea, Cuba & Venezuela be totally depressed!

 

[patentlymn]

This is just an opinion piece. I wonder if Israel will attack before Trump takes office.

https://www.richardsilverstein.com/2024/12/12/israel-eyes-attack-on-iran-nuclear-facilities/

December 12, 2024

https://www.richardsilverstein.com/2024/12/15/trump-advisors-israeli-leaders-urge-iran-attack/
Trump Advisors, Israeli Leaders Urge Iran Attack
December 15, 2024

[Libertas]

I say use all 6...

[Libertas]

Bunch of corrupt and incompetent Mahdi Death Cultists!

Iran holds the world’s second largest natural gas reserves and is the fourth-largest holder of oil reserves globally. With 300 sunny days annually, vast coastal and mountainous windy regions, the country also has strong wind and solar potential. Yet, Iran faces a constant 20% electricity deficit, a 25% natural gas deficit, and severe shortages of petroleum products, especially gasoline. For years, Tehran has seen the energy crisis coming but took no meaningful steps to avert it.

There is no quick fix to Iran’s energy crisis. Iran’s Oil Minister Mohsen Paknejad said this week that Iran needs $45 billion in investment to emerge from the energy crisis. Iran could reduce the impact of the crisis through increased gas imports from Turkmenistan. However, Iran has not been able to sustain gas import from Turkmenistan over the years, due to Tehran’s lack of payment. The regime’s energy subsidies to the public are also a huge financial burden, with close to a quarter of Iran’s GNP expended on subsidies.

There are multiple factors in Iran’s energy crisis.

One, the domestic gas and power prices in Iran are too low and this leads to high energy demand. The low prices are essentially a government subsidy aimed to keep the public complacent. In the past, when the government has raised energy prices, they have often triggered large-scale protests. The regime cannot risk new unrest. With such low prices, there is no motivation for private investment in gas and power supply in Iran and the government loses money on the energy it provides to the public.

Second, Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) commanders control the energy sector, like most infrastructure and communication sectors in Iran. The finances are murky and there is extensive corruption. Even when the government allocates funds for maintenance and expansion of energy infrastructure, a lot is syphoned off.

Third, subsidized refined products are smuggled abroad, exacerbating the shortages. Approximately, 20% of Iran’s fuel production is smuggled and sold abroad. There is a huge gap in prices in gasoline and other refined products between Iran and its neighbors, making smuggling abroad a very lucrative business.

Fourth, Tehran has not maintained its energy infrastructure and production consistently. Due to aging and inefficient infrastructure, Iran loses during production and transmission 40% of the total household electricity and gas consumption in Iran. In addition, Iran does not maintain sufficient gas storage capacity, in order to balance seasonable demand and production swings and other challenges.

Last, policy priorities generated the energy crisis: for close to a decade, Tehran provided Syria with 80,000-100,000 barrels a day of oil cost-free (on a credit line that will never be paid), while failing to provide sufficient fuel to its own citizens.

The energy crisis is having a huge impact on Iran’s economic output. Between 30-50% of Iran’s factories are currently idle due to lack of regular power. The crisis also affects Iran’s oil production, since gas for injection into fields is lacking. Iran’s steel production declined in half over the last year due to the energy crisis. Several of Iran’s refineries are not operating due to the lack of power, adding to the refined fuel shortage. This creates shortage of refined products for the domestic market as well as cuts into export revenue. Due to the energy crisis, some 22 cement plants are idled and pharmaceutical production had declined.

Iran’s energy crisis affects its food production as well. Iran’s fertilizer production is down, due to the lack of natural gas for feed stock. Higher fertilizer prices generate higher agricultural good prices. In previous summers, the energy crisis has hurt crops, since frequent electricity disruptions incapacitated water pumps.

In contrast to the regime’s statements, sanctions are not the cause of the Iranian energy crisis. Iran does not need foreign equipment to produce natural gas and power. Russia has been under sanctions for over a decade, and still manages quite well to provide electricity and heat to the Russian population. Iran could purchase from Russia and China any equipment it cannot manufacture at home. In addition, this is not Israel’s doing. With no evidence, the regime claims that last year Israel attacked two gas pipelines, and this is the cause of the crisis. However, gas pipelines are relatively easy to fix, and this does not explain the all-out shortages in electricity and fuel.

The gas shortages also affect Tehran’s natural gas export. Tehran exports gas to Turkey, Iraq and Armenia. The Minister of Energy and Natural Resources of Turkey, Dr. Alparslan Bayraktar, stated that Iran’s exports to Turkey are currently at half of its contractual commitment. Iraq also reported cutbacks in oil production due to the supply disruption of Iranian gas.

Iran’s power demand has continued to grow, but generation has not kept up. According to Iranian government estimates in 2010, the country needed annual electricity generation growth of at least 7% to avoid electricity shortages, but Iran only reached half that rate. In 2023, only one third of the electricity production was achieved. And, last year, electricity generation growth was even lower.

Source:  Tehran Chamber of Commerce

Currently, over 90% of the country's electricity is generated by thermal power plants, with very low efficiency rates. Some of the country’s oldest plants have efficiency rates as low as 20%. Renewables provide only 1% of Iran’s electricity.

Iran also has a major gasoline and diesel deficit. To address these shortages, Tehran imports fuel from neighbors, including Russia.

Frequent blackouts and lack of fuel have been triggers to widespread regime protests and government overthrow in multiple locations in the world. The regimes of Egyptian presidents Hosni Mubarak and Mohammad Morsi, both fell after protracted power blackouts. The civil war in Syria during Bashar al-Assad’s reign, emerged right after Syria’s oil production fell to the level of its domestic consumption, leaving little oil revenue to fund the government and its security services. This year in Bangladesh, protestors toppled the government of Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina amid widespread power outages. Iran’s energy crisis can galvanize further opposition to the rule of the unpopular Islamic Republic. Iran’s energy crisis and potential regime crisis is happening on the eve of President Trump’s return to the White House and he is set on removing the Iranian threat.
https://www.zerohedge.com/geopolitical/irans-energy-crisis

If the theocratic thugs weren't batshyt-crazy, if they weren't so manically genocidal towards Israel and funding terrorists everywhere and weren't so corrupt perhaps they'd serve their people better...  But believing that is possible is the height of ignorance.

I say they are ripe for toppling.  I say exploit it.  Maybe then the people can have a choice vs no choices at all.

[Libertas]

"Maybe they are trying to get new defense as we speak but their defense is largely gone... Iran is very nervous. I think they're scared. I think Iran would love to make a deal and I would love to make a deal with them without bombing them," Trump had said in the remarks just under a week ago.

"Everybody thinks Israel with our help or our approval will go in and bomb the hell out of them," Trump had added. "I would prefer that not happen. I'd much rather see a deal with Iran where we can do a deal, supervise, check it, inspect it," the president continued.

That's when Trump made one of the more interesting and provocative comments of the interview...

There's two ways to stopping them: With bombs or a written piece of paper.

https://www.zerohedge.com/geopolitical/netanyahu-rubio-lets-finish-job-against-iran

I expect the Mahdi Death Cult lunatics to choose poorly...

Get the bombs ready...

[Libertas]

This is legit...

https://x.com/TheIntelFrog/status/1904576066523480574

https://x.com/Osint613/status/1904698889384370607

https://www.zerohedge.com/military/stealth-bombers-reportedly-deploying-americas-unsinkable-carrier

In fact, the C-17 flights into Ramstein and then into the Gulf have been super high...Monkey covers it in this broadcast -

https://youtu.be/H_mk5O9AxZE

And while people are focusing on the dispatch of the Vinson to the theater, it is more of a mid-deployment shift from a WestPac patrol that happens often with capital ships.  But the timing of Ops could be timed to its arrival in-theater.  The Nimitz has just sortied out of Kitsap-Bremerton for its final voyage prior to decommissioning and just picked up its airwing out of San Diego so I expect it will backfill with a WestPac tour while Vinson rolls West and could possibly relieve it later on.  Vinson has to steam from Guam.  Both the Bush and Ford have been doing workups off The Capes and could be sortied anytime.  As for Amphib's, the Essex is already in the PG and the nearest other is the Boxer in the Philippines.  But I expect this to be a no boots on the ground kind of spanking.

As I predicted, looks like the Mahdi Death Cult chose poorly...and Trump's promise of paper or rock (sorry no scissors!) is coming true.

[Libertas]

https://gatewayhispanic.com/2025/03/iran-responds-to-trumps-letter-on-nuclear-deal/

Yup, they want an ass-whuppin'...

And I think it is coming...

[Libertas]

The Gulf nations have been and continue to be problematic little PITA's...

https://www.zerohedge.com/military/gulf-states-refuse-let-us-use-bases-airspace-iran-attack

Should be a short message to them...

1.  You a-holes have benefitted from our power, and we've asked very little from you in return.
2.  Think about what life may be like if we exit your petty little monarchies.
3.  With our reopening of our domestic energy capacity, we don't really need your friggin oil anymore, so that leverage is evaporating fast.
4.  Think about us gone...who would file the power vacuum in the region?  Certainly not any or even a group of you bed-wetters, not the Euro's who are currently being forced to stand up for themselves for the first time ever...it will be Iran, because neither the Russians or the Chinese will want to get in their way...perhaps we should let the Mahdi Death Cultists absorb your petty little kingdoms under threat of their new nuclear capability.
5.  Oh, and no more toys from America, obviously.

 

[Libertas]

https://www.zerohedge.com/geopolitical/russia-warns-against-us-strikes-iran-nuclear-sites-catastrophic-illegal

Bite me.  Like your influence over the Mahdi Death Cult is worth a damn to get them to surrender their nightmarish nuclear weapon dreams. 

Y'all about as useful as teats on a rooster...go lecture somebody else...

 

[patentlymn]

Some analysts on judge Nap, former CIA said that the US wants war on iran to upset the RU-Iran plan for their north south corridor which would eliminate the need to go through the straits into the black sea and suez and other routes under western control. They said the list of US demands on Iran are unreasonable e.g. get rid of all missiles.

[Libertas]

That's sounds like BS to me to kill plans to eliminate the Mahdi Death Cult's nuclear weapons program, which if allowed to come to fruition will turn the entire region into the worst warzone on Earth as limp-dicks let the Shiite lunatics to run rampant and see whole nations (not just Israel) wiped off the map...

People unwilling to confront these lunatics are cowards.

[Libertas]

https://www.zerohedge.com/commodities/energy-secretary-hints-military-action-against-irans-global-oil-exports

I'd be OK with applying those pliers to their nethers...

[Libertas]

As always, Sundance's take is reasonable, and his restaurant analogy makes things understandable for the layperson.

https://theconservativetreehouse.com/blog/2025/04/17/report-president-trump-opposed-israeli-strikes-on-iran-nuclear-sites/

I want to focus on two points.  I don't disagree per se with Sundance, I think Trump would like to extract from/not need to do more conflict (more complications on that front later) but I think the decision to lean on negotiations for the time being does not mean a strike at some point isn't possible, to me it merely is, as Sundance says a "last resort" and it will be on terms laid out by the President.  I think the planning for a strike is still very much alive.  Both the US and Israel agree that Iran must not obtain nuclear weapons, that is the hard line that cannot be crossed.  Israel will do whatever it must when it must if its survival is in jeopardy, I don't think this is misunderstood by anybody.  Israel will accede to US leadership until such time that delay is no longer an option and their information, which is almost always rock solid (IMO their Intel Ops make other nation's shops look like amateurs), indicates their program is at the precipice.  Secondly, the track record of the Mahdi Death Cult running Iran is consistent in using, since they are Shia, Taqiyya and Kitman and other Islamic tools of deception, to delay negotiations with those they see as infidels like the US.  (Interestingly, Sunni believe in using these tactics only vs non-believers...Shia use them against all)  IMO the Mahdi Death Cultists are dragging negotiations out until their nuclear capability is a fait accompli.  At this point Israel and the US act in concert, or Israel acts alone.

Lastly I would like to add my disappointment that Sundance treaded so lightly upon the leak out of the IC, his "dishes crashing" as it were.  This is something I desire to bring more attention to.  It is obvious the leaker leaked this as a goad to some and for perception seeding for others.  Regardless, the existence of leaks indicates staff connected to prospective planning meetings and discussions...I want DNI Gabbard and AG Bondi and their direct reports to root these out.  At some point sensitive info being blown out to the usual DeepState propaganda outlets has the potential to do real damage....I want them pulled out root and stem!

About the complication I mentioned...

A hard "No" on this BS - https://itsaboutliberty.com/index.php/topic,19797.new.html#new

[Libertas]

This is nothing new...

https://www.thegatewaypundit.com/2025/04/report-israel-willing-ignore-trump-proceed-limited-attack/

...I've always said there will come a time when Israel will act...this is based upon past experience, and I am sure Trump and his people know this as well...

...the clock is ticking...

...the nefarious DeepState organ (NY Slimes) and it's invocation of Trump's name can be completely ignored...invoking his name is the only reason they published it...because without it nobody would have paid any attention...in fact nobody needs to pay attention who knows better...hopefully more people know better know...

[Libertas]

Indicates plans may be on hold but not cancelled...as I expected...

https://www.zerohedge.com/geopolitical/eye-iran-us-sends-bunker-busting-bombs-israel

[Libertas]

https://www.zerohedge.com/geopolitical/iran-offers-more-nuclear-transparency-exchange-lifting-sanctions

Sounds swell, therefor I deem it just another stalling tactic...they are going for the fait accompli...nothing has changed...