In a recent interview, President Trump’s peace envoy, Steve Witkoff, warned that the ongoing conflict in Gaza poses a serious risk to regional stability, with Egypt and Jordan particularly vulnerable. Speaking to Tucker Carlson, Witkoff underscored the fragility of both regimes, stating,
It’s a huge factor. King Abdullah of Jordan has managed instability well, but he’s also been lucky. Egypt is the real flashpoint. The progress from the Ayoun election — especially with Nasrallah and Sinwar eliminated — could be undone if Egypt collapses. Syria was a major lesson for the region. Assad’s fall was unexpected, proving that no regime is truly safe. Egypt’s situation is dire — youth unemployment is at 45%, the country is broke, and it desperately needs help. If Egypt unravels, it could set us back significantly.
Witkoff’s remarks challenge prevailing assumptions in Washington, where Abdullah’s monarchy is often considered stable. However, he points to the precedent set by Syria, where President Bashar Assad, once seen as entrenched, fell unexpectedly. His downfall shattered the notion that regimes with longstanding rule are invulnerable, particularly in a region where economic hardship and political repression fuel discontent.
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The same logic applies to Jordan, where the Hashemite monarchy is even more precarious. Unlike the Assads, who were native Syrians, Jordan’s ruling family descends from Saudi Arabia. A leaked U.S. diplomatic cable once described them as “a non-Jordanian family” fearing “a tribal coup.” That ethnic and political detachment has long been a source of instability.
Given these risks, the U.S. must have a contingency plan for potential regime change in Jordan. Although instability presents challenges, it also offers opportunities — namely, reviving the long discussed “Jordan Option.”
The Palestinian issue remains at the heart of the Arab-Israeli conflict, driven in large part by the Palestinians’ statelessness. Decades of external influence — from Western powers to Arab regimes — have perpetuated their situation. Historically, Jordan was designated as the Palestinian homeland under the 1921 San Remo Accords and the Treaty of Sèvres. Today, over 80% of Jordan’s population is of Palestinian descent, and those Jordanians have historically driven the country’s economy.
The idea of Jordan as a Palestinian state is not new. In 1970, secretary of State Henry Kissinger proposed Palestinian control of Jordan as a resolution to the Palestinian issue, calling it a path toward “a Palestinian settlement.” President Nixon, however, rejected the plan. The Pakistani army arrived in Jordan, expelled the Palestinian militias, and secured King Hussein's throne.
Today, and despite their demographic dominance, Palestinians in Jordan face systemic discrimination and apartheid policies, excluded from political and economic power by Abdullah’s regime, which relies on a Bedouin minority to maintain control.
Moreover, King Abdullah has strategically aligned himself with Islamist groups, including the Muslim Brotherhood (M.B.). Officially, Hamas is considered the “Palestine Chapter of Jordan’s M.B.” The king has empowered Islamist factions while suppressing secular opposition, amending laws to favor Islamist parties and allowing radical elements to thrive.
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Jordan’s debt exceeds 100% of its GDP, and the country is facing unprecedented poverty. Meanwhile, Abdullah has been exposed before the world as owning a real estate empire in Western countries and huge bank accounts in Western banks. This news is insult added to injury for the impoverished people of Jordan.
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As explained in the previous lines, Witkoff is right: Jordan’s king is in a precarious position. While the U.S. is not by any chance seeking regime change, internal unrest or military intervention could lead to his downfall. If that happens, a Palestinian-led government is the most likely successor, given the country’s demographic realities; the Palestinian majority will elect a Palestinian leader.
The U.S. should have a Plan B for Jordan. Should the king fall like Assad, the U.S. must be ready and able to usher in a secular Palestinian leader into an interim government. This leader must accept that U.S. support will come with stipulations that would resolve several core issues in the Israeli-Palestinian conflict.
The Right of Return: The first is that Jordan would grant full rights to its majority population, restoring Jordanian citizenship to Palestinians in Gaza, the West Bank, Lebanon, and Syria. Instead of seeking mass resettlement inside Israel, Palestinian refugees could integrate into a Palestinian-ruled Jordan. This would improve living conditions for stateless Palestinians currently in Gaza, Lebanon, Syria, and Egypt.https://www.americanthinker.com/articles/2025/03/the_witkoff_warning_will_jordan_s_king_fall.htmlHashemite rule is more than precarious...
And I dunno about a Jordan-based pan-fake nation nation...let alone how to have one free of extremists wanting to slaughter Israeli's...
But planning for the worst makes sense, and at least Witcoff is identifying issues clearly.
