So it's Halloween (and/or Reformation Day) Saturday, the last weekend before the big USA election here in 2020.
So what are people here thinking it's going to go?
1. About the same results as 2016? Trump win, but not huge. Polls wrong yet again?
2. Big Trump win? Polls really wrong this time?
3. Small Biden win? Polls maybe about right this time?
4. Big Biden win?
1. Guessing this one is most likely. Turnout has been huge, so the overall voting numbers will be larger than 2016, but will it still be about the same ratio? I stood in line for two and a half hours today for early voting. It's not clear if that favors either candidate, so the needle may not move much. The support for Trump with Republicans is huge yet. But will he hold enough of the Democrats he picked up in states like Michigan and Pennsylvania in 2016? Will the Democrats manage to bring out enough people voting against Trump to get it for Biden, since there seems to be little actual support for Biden himself? Trump does have the advantage of being the incumbent.
2. Had Covid not happened, this probably would have been. The economy was finally getting out of the toilet, and that alone probably would have gotten a second term easy, especially against a weak candidate like Biden. Unfortunately I don't see a huge win happening, though it would be really satisfying. Covid has been a huge battering ram on the Trump administration. Trump will never have the full power of the federal government behind him like a Democratic president would, as there are too many there actively working against him.
3. Unfortunately, this is likely too. If Trump loses Michigan, Pennsylvania it's probably over. If it's close, little voter fraud will be necessary for Democrats to steal it too, making it easier for the media to bury those stories. Democrats always have the advantage when it comes to get out the vote, as they are willing to actually pick people up from home to bring them to polling stations, something Republicans continue to not do.
4. This doesn't seem likely. Biden and Harris aren't that popular with Democrats, they are more fired up about getting Trump out than getting Biden in. Are enough Democrats turned off to the fact that they are likely electing Harris to be president? (Most annoying voice since Jimmy Carter!) Will Democrats be really brazen and pull out the full hog with voter fraud if they think they are against the wall? If Biden wins states like Texas, there will be fraud no doubt. On the scale of 1960 even.
Other thoughts. It's unlikely we will know the winner on election night unless it's a pretty clear Biden win. The media will be very reluctant to call it for Trump (like 2016) again, no matter how far ahead he would be. It was really fun watching them in 2016 and a rerun in 2020 would be totally delicious. However if Biden wins it will suck as the arrogance will be on full display.
There will be riots if Trump wins. Democrats will likely cry voter fraud, even though they will be guilty of all of it.
There won't be riots if Biden wins. A few will talk about the voter fraud but it will be quickly buried by the media and the incoming Biden regime.
So your thoughts!!!
Poll