Topic: Presidential Election Watch 2012: The Democrat Edition

[Pandora]

Once I learned that roughly only 9% of people contacted to be surveyed in a poll actually respond to the questions, that changed my entire outlook on polls.

The numbers are representative not just of "likely voters" or "registered voters" or "adults" or what have you. The overriding qualifying caveat is that poll results are exclusively the 9% of people who are inclined to respond to a poll. Whether those 9% are representative of the general population at large is, I think, extremely questionable.

So I think polls are useful for those who are seeking trends, or who feel the need for some kind of indicator. But they prove nothing, and should give neither comfort or discomfort; encouragement or discouragement. They just are.

This is an example of why all the poll-reports make me uneasy ....

"By: Erick Erickson (Diary)  |  October 17th, 2012 at 03:42 PM  |  84

RESIZE: AAA

For the past couple of months I’ve been under attack from users here and conservatives elsewhere for refusing to believe the polls were rigged. I’ve certainly agreed they’ve been weighted too much for the Democrats and were, consequently, wrong, but I have never thought it was intentional. I saw no sense whining about it as it just makes conservatives sound unhinged and detached from reality."

.... because, despite what you wrote there about 9%, too many people, like Erickson (who also works for CNN) put stock in them, and then they write encouraging or discouraging articles based on the poll numbers.  It seems stupid to me; might as well cast bones and use those results.

And Erickson has been around the block enough times to know cheaters cheat, and Democrats are the biggest cheaters of all.

[trapeze]

Having just taken a break at work and read through HotAir and AoS...


...I gotta say that I am very happy. Sure, the polls are all trending our way now and you can believe them or not BUT there are just so many indicators that are outstanding.

Don't want to go through them now but, holy cow! What a great day.

[trapeze]

I am looking forward to the Intrade price collapse on BO.

Should happen in the next two or three trading days. Five, tops.

[Libertas]

Certainly no later than next Tuesday morning.

The "bone casting" has been consistently rigged against conservatives, so on that score I think the trend is more meaningful, regardless of the response rate.  All things being equal there is nothing real going on that is benefiting any kind of significant movement toward Obama, so the logical conclusion he is in major trouble.  Does this mean the Left will give up, stay home, not rig whatb they can, not intimidate, not destroy personal property (Romney signs), not threaten riots if Obama loses or commit fraud?  Of course not, I still predict a banner year for that, but I don't think it can rise to the level where it reverses Obama's immenent political demise.  I am more concerned about them stealing other down ticket races that threaten Congressional and state control.  I am more concerned about Obama nullifying elections and declaring martial law than I am of anything else. I am worried about him going tHugo Chavez.

[charlesoakwood]

"I am worried about him going tHugo Chavez."

That was a threat but many things are not going his
way and his supporters are notorious wind testers.
 

[trapeze]

Seriously, though, when you think about it...the BO campaign has been on a pretty bad streak for a long time. All of the stuff that they have tried, while it probably looked pretty clever at the time, has been sh*t.

It really took a downward turn with the "Romney put a dog on top of the car" attack which almost immediately blew up with the "Obama ate a dog" theme. It's been pretty much all down hill after that with the latest items (Big Bird and "binders") being particularly ridiculous.

The BO campaign has resorted to small and silly issues in the final weeks of the race because it's all they have. They don't have a knife to take to the gunfight. No. I'm not sure what metaphor to use in place of gun or knife.

[Pandora]

The faux outrage over "binders" ..... really?  are they serious?  Binders?

Now it's racist to say Chicago, golf, peanut butter, Obamaphone and food-stamp President, and sexist to say binders?!

Get off my lawn.

[trapeze]

I thought of this and damned if somebody out there didn't beat me to it:

[Pandora]

"Gonna put y'all BACK in .... corsets".

Or somethin'.

[charlesoakwood]

Are we witnessing an Intervention?
One last opportunity to get it right.

[Glock32]

Everyone knows we men (well, evil white men) want to keep women barefoot and pregnant, in the kitchen. The kitchen is key. Not just for the cooking and cleaning, but because we can't have her water break in a carpeted room.  Tile is much easier for her to clean up.  See, just thinking of the ladies.  We spoil them.

[trapeze]

How about bind her with blinders? Umm...except the lib women have pretty much volunteered for that treatment from their masters in Democrat leadership. Witness the protection of serial woman abuser Clinton.

None of this makes any sense, of course.

[RickZ]

Everyone knows we men (well, evil white men) want to keep women barefoot and pregnant, in the kitchen. . . .

Hell, when I married, I would have settled for just 'in the kitchen'.

/One out of three ain't bad.

[Libertas]

How about bind her with blinders? Umm...except the lib women have pretty much volunteered for that treatment from their masters in Democrat leadership. Witness the protection of serial woman abuser Clinton.

None of this makes any sense, of course.

It never does.  I think Leftists, but especially gals at NAG, are missing the gene that allows them to experience cognitive dissonance.

[John Florida]

How about bind her with blinders? Umm...except the lib women have pretty much volunteered for that treatment from their masters in Democrat leadership. Witness the protection of serial woman abuser Clinton.

None of this makes any sense, of course.

It never does.  I think Leftists, but especially gals at NAG, are missing the gene that allows them to experience cognitive dissonance.

 I saw this crud on binders last night and have to ask where that nutjob came from and who in their right mind would listen to her garbage.

[trapeze]

I was looking at Intrade. They have the current price for BO winning set at 6.14 which translates to a 61.4% chance of this (nightmare) happening. This seems to be following the Nate Silver percentage chance of BO winning. (Actually, Silver has the percentage slightly higher at almost 68%. Personally, I think the guy is delusional but that's just me.)

This may take a little longer to crash if these people rely on Silver* for an accurate read.

*Silver was two years old when Reagan beat Carter and perhaps lacks some perspective in this particular area...that area being "incredibly loser fail Democrat presidents."

[charlesoakwood]

How about bind her with blinders? Umm...except the lib women have pretty much volunteered for that treatment from their masters in Democrat leadership. Witness the protection of serial woman abuser Clinton.

None of this makes any sense, of course.

It never does.  I think Leftists, but especially gals at NAG, are missing the gene that allows them to experience cognitive dissonance.

 I saw this crud on binders last night and have to ask where that nutjob came from and who in their right mind would listen to her garbage.

[CatholicCrusader]

Electoral Update 2

[trapeze]

Another day, another piece of anecdotal evidence.

Today's installment comes from the PuffHo. They have this article about how BO supporters are coping with the downward trend for BO in the polls. The article sucks...typical PuffHo mediocre "journalism"...but what makes it interesting (as is so often the case in these things) are the comments that follow the article. I have always been under the impression that the PuffHo was chock full of liberals like, say, DailyKos or Democrat Underground. And it is. PuffHo is an "upscale" DailyKos or perhaps and online print version of MSNBC. It's 100% pro liberal bias, through and through. So, I'm confused about the comments on this article because they are mostly running anti-BO and pro-Romney. Who are these people? They aren't new commenters. It's hard to believe that any right-minded conservative would hang out there. So are they "moderates?" Don't know. And really don't care. It's just interesting and funny that there would be so many anti-BO comments and commenters on any PuffHo article. Well, there it is...take it for what it's worth.

Here is one comment (from a person who actually does appear to be new) about what I noticed:

Romney is trending on huff post? Can't believe all the pro Romney posts on this site. Now I am getting excited. Remember, Obama has binders of dead embassy workers and unemployed Americans. Romney 2012.

[CatholicCrusader]

LOL!!! That's great.