Topic: Are Democrats Beginning To Awaken From An Abilene Paradox?

[trapeze]

I read this over at AoS and thought that it might make a good Sunday afternoon/evening discussion topic.

The Abilene Paradox describes a form of group think in which people collectively decide on a course of action that is counter to the preferences of any of the individuals in the group. It involves a common breakdown of group communication in which each member mistakenly believes that their own preferences are counter to the group's and, therefore, does not raise objections. A common phrase relating to the Abilene paradox is a desire to not "rock the boat".

The Democrats' Abilene Paradox involves their support for O'Bongo. We have seen a few high profile breaks with the Democrat/Liberal/Progressive groupthink to date but these anomalies appear to be increasing and this may be indicative of an imminent "preference cascade."

Mort Zuckerman was an early (O'Bongo) non-conformist in the Democrat ranks and has continued to speak out against the president's economic incompetence.

There have been others and feel free to list them.

Jon Lovitz ("I think Obama is an asshole") has rebelled more recently.

Today it is Campbell Brown who is coming out vocally and forcefully against O'Bongo's patronizing attitude toward women.

I have stated on this forum recently that I believe that the right is going to win big this November. It is hard to see this happening now but a preference cascade is what suddenly destroys the groupthink of an Abilene Paradox. A cascade preference is what suddenly brings down a tyrant or a tyranny in an unexpected revolution. No one knew when the Soviet Union would collapse...more than a few thought it would never happen...but one day the whole charade just collapsed.

Are we beginning to see the early signs of a preference cascade?

[IronDioPriest]

It would be a good thing. Whether we see an actual "cascade" remains to be seen, I think. The defectors thus far are not game changers, although Lovitz has been a refreshing surprise.

I've noted a bit of this same dynamic on the conservative side all through the Bush years, as he expanded entitlements, spending, bureaucracy, debt, and the deficit in the name of conservatism. So-called conservatives stood around looking at each other waiting for someone else to be the one to call his policies "liberal". Some dared call his policies into question on the merits without attacking him as a liberal, but most stood aside and allowed him to re-brand conservatism to justify policies that were entirely non-conservative. He was "our guy", and even when he was questioned by prominent voices, it was almost always within that context. Don't upset the applecart; primary mission: defend against the Left.

In the end, Bush was politically destroyed. Whether it was by Leftist demonization or the cascading abandonment of conservatives who had enough of his liberalism I cannot say. But I suspect the former, not the latter, or a combination at best.

[Libertas]

Are we beginning to see the early signs of a preference cascade?

I dunno.  I am leery of assigning any kind of positive attribute on people who seem to be too able to suspend normal cognitive ability and moral judgement...

I guess we will not really know until they a) cast a vote/don't vote and b) honestly tell us who they voted for afterwards if they voted.

That latter part I am especially dubious of...electoral results may tell us in general what happened, but people accustomed to lying and looking the other way are likely to continue lying and looking the other way...

No doubt that towering genius Frank Luntz will educate us all on the "why's" of this election once it is in the books...

 

[trapeze]

GWB always had the press against him, though. The Abilene Paradox for conservatives during that time was actually reinforced by the media's Bush Derangement Syndrome.

This time around we have the opposite effect going on. The media has always been cheerleading for the O'Bongo admin and for him personally...embellishing his "accomplishments" and ignoring his failures.

I believe that we are beginning to see the paradigm shift with the public (those members of the public who were either actual supporters or tacit approvers) through the recent polling results on various issues and candidate preferences.

rdbrewer in the AoS post summed up what he believes the media will ultimately do when this wave washes over them:

If it starts to look like Obama is likely to lose, the left will turn on him fast. He lied to them, and they're not happy. It'll be the president's problem or the messaging or the packaging, not the philosophy. They will turn on him to preserve their worldview.

[IronDioPriest]

Perhaps we can help them along with these...

[Predator Don]

Perhaps we can help them along with these...

Lol.....good idea.

[Weisshaupt]

  I don't know if you could call it a Preference Cascade - for that you would need enough intelligence to have your own preferences instead of one imposed upon you by the group. As Libertas indicated, these are not people who think for themselves and therefore cannot develop an opinion other than that of the group.  Liberals follow fads, and thankfully I think Obama, and to a lesser degree, politics in general are falling out of favor. 

We drove through the People's Republic of Boulder,  Colorado  last night and saw only a few Obama stickers - and they were old.  I didn't see one 2012.  Even saw one car plastered with Bumper stickers - and not an Obama sticker among them.  Even the number of cars with any bumper-stickers at all had plummeted in my experience.

Obama? Oh Man he is so 2008.  I am so over that.  Politics? Is all fighting and bad for my Karma. My life is too important to waste on such things. 

The cool kids have tried politics and have seen that it is not something they succeed at, so they are wiping their participation from their memories in the same way we pretend that we never owned a polyester shirt or bell bottom pants in the 70s. Maybe its too optimistic, but I really think they are abandoning the area as bad for their egos. The friends who ousted me from their blog are still my "friends" on facebook, and while I post nothing but the very best examples of liberal fascism there, they are posting nothing but pictures of their kids playing baseball, their amazing organic gardens, and celebrating their superiors choices in restaurants, and their fabulous vacations to somewhere better than where you went. Perhaps they just don't use Facebook for that, but when thy had that blog 90% of it was political content,  even though it was supposed to be for "facebook" type sharing ( this was before facebook)

Anyone else seeing a drop off in Liberals being willing to express a political opinion? Maybe conservatives  speaking up and confronting them has finally made them realize politics isn't "cool"  and  the they should stop trying to bring enlightenment to the low sloping neanderthals in fly over country and just punish us by leaving us to wallow in our ignorance.  Oh please, oh please, oh please...

[Libertas]

I haven't seen any backing off of the hardcore morons and I see my share of Obumbler stickers here in Proglodyteville...the horrible economy and dismal performance of Duh Wun could be muting the run-of-the-mill lefties and legacy democrats from being overly braggocious...I've know my fair share of Dem's and while they may not always be visibly pushing pom-poms for Barry, there is no way they'll vote for anybody else in November.

So we'll have to see what kind of relaible info the post-election dissections reveal as to any heartfelt migration from Libtardville.

[Predator Don]

  I don't know if you could call it a Preference Cascade - for that you would need enough intelligence to have your own preferences instead of one imposed upon you by the group. As Libertas indicated, these are not people who think for themselves and therefore cannot develop an opinion other than that of the group.  Liberals follow fads, and thankfully I think Obama, and to a lesser degree, politics in general are falling out of favor. 

We drove through the People's Republic of Boulder,  Colorado  last night and saw only a few Obama stickers - and they were old.  I didn't see one 2012.  Even saw one car plastered with Bumper stickers - and not an Obama sticker among them.  Even the number of cars with any bumper-stickers at all had plummeted in my experience.

Obama? Oh Man he is so 2008.  I am so over that.  Politics? Is all fighting and bad for my Karma. My life is too important to waste on such things. 

The cool kids have tried politics and have seen that it is not something they succeed at, so they are wiping their participation from their memories in the same way we pretend that we never owned a polyester shirt or bell bottom pants in the 70s. Maybe its too optimistic, but I really think they are abandoning the area as bad for their egos. The friends who ousted me from their blog are still my "friends" on facebook, and while I post nothing but the very best examples of liberal fascism there, they are posting nothing but pictures of their kids playing baseball, their amazing organic gardens, and celebrating their superiors choices in restaurants, and their fabulous vacations to somewhere better than where you went. Perhaps they just don't use Facebook for that, but when thy had that blog 90% of it was political content,  even though it was supposed to be for "facebook" type sharing ( this was before facebook)

Anyone else seeing a drop off in Liberals being willing to express a political opinion? Maybe conservatives  speaking up and confronting them has finally made them realize politics isn't "cool"  and  the they should stop trying to bring enlightenment to the low sloping neanderthals in fly over country and just punish us by leaving us to wallow in our ignorance.  Oh please, oh please, oh please...

I believe you are correct in regards to the "cool kids", especially those who do not espouse God.......As obama attempts to reel them back in with promises of cheap student loans.

I can tell you firsthand, the cool kids who do consider God part of thier lives ( even though thier syrupy speech and twisting of the Word is purely self serving) walk with a dazed look. It's really difficult to twist the acceptence of gay marriage....or it is in Tennessee within my family.

I do have some family who called themselves dems purely because of unions( social and fiscally conservative)....They bought the line republicans would rip them off. I KNOW they voted for the party ticket, but I doubt they will this time around....I believe they will simply not vote.

I also admit I do not see the ultra liberal numbnuts too much. If not for memphis, I could argue Tennessee is the most conservative state in America. Al Gore couldn't carry his own state.

[Glock32]

And I think everyone can guess why Memphis is so heavily Democrat.

[AlanS]

And I think everyone can guess why Memphis is so heavily Democrat.

PICK ME! PICK ME! I KNOW!!

[LadyVirginia]

rdbrewer in the AoS post summed up what he believes the media will ultimately do when this wave washes over them:

If it starts to look like Obama is likely to lose, the left will turn on him fast. He lied to them, and they're not happy. It'll be the president's problem or the messaging or the packaging, not the philosophy. They will turn on him to preserve their worldview.

I believe this is a real possibility.

While Barry created his personna over a number of years, it's through the press that it all came together.  No doubt BO and Ayers, etc think they're using the press BUT the press is still made up of individuals who will let their own self-interest trump anything.  Sure they stick together--- until there's enough blood in the water and one reporter starts then another then another.  The press built up BO; they will destroy him if necessary*.  I hope between now and November is enough time.  If the press starts then the marginal voters (those who vote on feeling and group identity) will assert their "awareness" by abandoning politics as unsavory.

*It will have to be a solid, revealing story--they will still want to CYA--and the stuff we've questioned all along will be used as filler.

[trapeze]

Fritzworth at AoS is going on record that this week is the week that the tide turns...

Not 1984 big, but so decisively as to preempt any Dem claims of voter irregularities and to forestall any Dem voter irregularities themselves. ("If it's not close, they can't cheat." -- Hugh Hewett)

And when analysts look back at the 'turning point' of the 2012 election, they'll point to this week as the inflection point of the campaign, and in particular to three key points:

1) It's now apparent that the Emperor's campaign has no clothes. In spite of the best "wind beneath his wings" efforts of the mainstream media (haircuts? dressage?), every Obama campaign attack on Romney so far has blown up in their faces, either undercut by other Dems (gotta love Bill's statements last night -- remember, revenge is a dish best served cold and with plausible deniability) -- or by bringing to light background information about Obama that the MSM has carefully overlooked for six years.

2) Romney and his campaign staff are clearly moving themselves "inside the loop" in their campaign against Obama. They're raising more money, they're responding to the news cycle better, and they're aggressive about getting in his face. As others have noted, Obama has never faced a tough campaign before and for the first time he has a highly public, highly visible record to defend. I've been waiting 30 years for a bare-knuckled Republican Presidential candidate; who would have thought it would be Mitt Romney? Not me, but I couldn't be happier.

3) It really is hard to overstate just how bad the economic news today was for Obama. It's not just the slight tick upward in the artificially low unemployment rate; it's not just the horrendous May jobs numbers (69,000 actual vs. 150,000+ expected). It's the April jobs numbers being revised down from 114,000 to 77,000, with a chance that the May jobs numbers will be revised downward a month from now. Basically, the 'soft recovery' is sliding down a steep slope, and I'll give even odds that we see at least one month this year with negative job growth.

Bill Clinton is definitely riding the cascade preference wave.

More at the link.

[Libertas]

Until the undead stop twitching I am not prepared to declare my enemies vanquished and proclaim all is well.  That latter part is just too foolish, the former too unwise.  Keep pumping head shots and don't let up until the election is over.

[trapeze]

Obama Economic Plan: Go Buy A Thingamajig

Anyone with a brain in the audience who hears this economic brilliance will be heading for the exits very, very soon.

[Predator Don]

Obama Economic Plan: Go Buy A Thingamajig

Anyone with a brain in the audience who hears this economic brilliance will be heading for the exits very, very soon.

I have enough jigs in my tacklebox.

[Libertas]

Obama Economic Plan: Go Buy A Thingamajig

Anyone with a brain in the audience who hears this economic brilliance will be heading for the exits very, very soon.

I have enough jigs in my tacklebox.

 

That's raaaaacist!

 

[Glock32]

Remember when they ridiculed W. shortly after 9/11 for suggesting that people engage in commerce, go to a show, etc?  I guess buying thingamajigs is very different.

[Predator Don]

Obama Economic Plan: Go Buy A Thingamajig

Anyone with a brain in the audience who hears this economic brilliance will be heading for the exits very, very soon.

I have enough jigs in my tacklebox.

 

That's raaaaacist!

 

And frankly, it was intended to be.....

[trapeze]

And, once again, O'Bongo demonstrates that he is the least knowledgeable person in any room he walks into.

The "thingamajig" in question is one that "someone will be replacing for their furnace." (I didn't quote him directly and therefore left out quite a bit of stuttering)

A furnace is like a mousetrap in that there are no superfluous parts. If you take one part away it is no longer a furnace. It can't heat a home. If you "need" a part for your furnace it isn't optional. Not unless freezing is an option. For non-idiots freezing is not an option. You don't put off buying that "needed" part. You might put off a night at the movies. Or some extra snacks at the grocery store. But not a "needed" furnace part.

Yet another demonstration of what a moron this guy is.