Time to revive this thread. Putting up a temporary new name for it to once again put my money where my mouth is prediction-wise.
Yeah,
I'm going on the record one more time that O'Bongo is going to lose and he is going to lose big. It's going to be an anti-O'Bongo landslide. Not a pro-Romney landslide. This is going to be one of the biggest referendums in US history. Nothing like it since Carter. Chicago political tactics aren't going to be enough. It's steam roller time, baby.
The sh*t is hitting the fan for President Downgrade. Donations are down. Venues are not selling out...not even close and sometimes the clod is playing to half empty stadiums. He is spending more money than he is bringing in.
And now there's
this.Two-thirds of likely voters say the weak economy is Washington’s fault, and more blame President Obama than anybody else, according to a new poll for The Hill.
Ed Morrisey analysis
here. A sample:
The numbers are bad for Obama almost across the board. Overwhelming numbers of both men (65/26) and women (67/26) believe the current economic malaise is the result of bad policy rather than an unavoidable consequence of the 2008 crash. Not a single demographic thinks otherwise, not even self-described liberals (46/39). Even without any other data, an incumbent President would face daunting odds in re-election with these numbers, since most voters assign blame or credit for economic to the White House.
But the numbers just get worse. Despite Obama’s insistence over the last few months on blaming the economy he “inherited” — or perhaps because of his attempts to shift blame — Bush now gets the least amount of blame for the status quo, with only 18%. Both men and women put Bush last on the list, and both put Obama highest on the list. That’s true in every single age demographic, including the key youngest-voters group, which splits blame 32/19 between Obama and Bush. Only among blacks (19/53), Democrats (14/35), and self-described liberals (7/36) does Bush get more blame. Every income demographic assigns more blame to Obama than Bush.
Poll data details.
I can't wait to see how Nate Silver* spins this.
It's 1000 likely voters and the poll was taken on July 9th. Things are worse today than then. It was only a week ago that Silver was still spinning an O'Bongo victory as 66% likely. Silver had better figure out a way to extract himself from this tar baby pretty quick or his days as a wunderkind polling prognosticator are over.
Could things be worse for the president's re-election chances? Yeah, I guess. He could be the center of a child molestation scandal at a major university. Other than that, though, it's hard to see how things could be worse. And that's because at the end of the day he is who he is and he isn't going to change appreciably before the voters go to the polls in November. He isn't Clinton. He isn't even Carter. He's worse.
He is a Stuttering Clusterf**k of a Miserable Failure. SCOAMF 2012. Everything he has done via campaign strategy has blown up. Everything. Even dogs. How do you screw up dogs? Oh yeah, you get tagged for having eaten them.
This poll underscores that reality becoming firmly entrenched in the minds of the voters.
All of them.This campaign is circling the drain and it isn't even August yet.
In my lifetime that is unprecedented. Heck, has this ever happened before? I can't think of a president who is more screwed over than this one.
I haven't felt this confident in the results of a presidential election since Nixon in 1968 and 1972 or Reagan in 1980 and 1984. And, yeah, I was a child in '68 but that was the first presidential election I can remember and I do remember thinking that Nixon was going to win. I didn't know dick about the politics but I was sure he was going to win. Probably from listening to my parents talk and stuff like that...they say that the "Scholastic Reader" poll that is done with school kids is pretty darned accurate because kids listen to what their parents say about elections and who they are going to vote for. Those elections were all landslides and this one is going to be like them...I'm just getting that vibe.
This thing is Romney's to lose. He can coast to victory. He can win with the prevent defense.
And we have an opportunity here. This can be such a teachable moment. O'Bongo and his buddies on Capitol Hill have implemented the whole stinking leftist agenda. They have done just about everything in the leftist wish book and they can even claim that it was all done under the guidance of the "smartest people in the room" with the smartest president ever. Smart, smart, smart, smart. Genius time, baby.
Green energy? Check.
Deficit spending gone wild? Check.
Smart power? Check.
Health care? Check.
Wealth redistribution? Check.
Federal regulationpalooza? Check.
Executive orders run amuck? Check.
Golfing? Check.
You name the liberal fantasy and they have indulged it. On steroids. Okay, they didn't get gun control done (yet) but they have been busy bees.
And it's all for these kind of poll numbers. Worst ever. They are even bailing on their own convention. Can anyone remember when that has ever happened before? Me neither.
Teachable moment, though. You will forever after be able to point to that one miserable point in history and say that this is what happens when liberalism is given a blank check.
So, I have no doubt that this administration is going down in flames. The only thing that I am not certain of is how much the O'Bongo campaign death spiral will affect the House and especially the Senate races. You can never tell about those. The House is not going to change hands, Pelosi magical thinking to the contrary. The Senate? Maybe it will flip. I hope it does. The stage is at least properly set with more Democrats having to defend Senate seats this year than last. It could turn out to be a perfect storm of sorts when combined with the president's horrible numbers.
We will see.
But I think this is going to be an election for the record books.
*Silver put out a column yesterday. It's long, detailed and confusing in that he talks out of both sides of his mouth about what the polling "really means" at this point in the race. He is not mentioning this poll which came out a day later, of course. I wonder if he will write about it or ignore it. Silver is an ultra lefty who pretends to be a brainiac scientific genius when it comes to poll interpretation.